Damned if you do and damned if you don't.
That's the dilemma facing Hollywood as it gears up to unveil its summer blockbusters.
Historically, this is the period — between May and August — that boosts or batters a studio's earnings.
The sun is out, schools are shut and shiny, happy people are out in the streets. But increasingly, they're not flocking to cinemas for their entertainment fix.
Last year, for instance, movie ticket receipts in North America dipped by 6 per cent to US$9 billion ($14.3 billion).
Worldwide, ticket sales were down 7.9 per cent to US$23 billion.
The same scenario played out in Singapore. According to figures released by the Singapore Film Commission, cinema attendance last year dropped to 14.8 million, down from 15.8 million a year ago.
Compare this to the glory days of the early 1990s when attendances averaged 19 million.
Studio bigwigs are hard pressed to explain this downward spiral, considering that they fired on all cylinders last year with big-budget offerings like "Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith," "War of the Worlds" and "Batman Begins".
While all three films made money, raking in a combined US$819 million, they were also more expensive to produce, with their budgets reaching nearly US$400 million.
So far this year, box office grosses in North America are up, albeit by a negligible 1 per cent. But no one is popping the champagne and lighting up the cigars just yet. Analysts point out that this bump is probably due to ticket price increases.
Overall, attendance numbers in the US are, in fact, down about 2 per cent compared to a year ago.
The problem is compounded by the fact that the time between a theatrical release and its debut on video is getting shorter.
The aim, of course, is to beat the pirates to the cash register.
For instance, Peter Jackson's "King Kong" had its big-screen bow in December last year but by March, it was available at your local video store.
The unintended consequence: More people prefer to wait for the DVD to come out rather than pay through their noses for cinema tickets.
Inadvertently, by trying to protect its golden egg, Hollywood ends up hurting itself.
The upshot of these developments: A zero sum game.
This is especially true amid rising production costs — even an animated feature like Pixar's upcoming "Cars" cost about US$70 million — and inflated fees for A-list actors like Tom Cruise.
It's also a vicious cycle: The more studios throw money at the problem, thinking audiences want more bangs and booms, the more they're staying away.
And the more studios trot out the trite-and-tested, spinning off sequels and remakes, the more audiences will be tempted to stay home and watch the original films.
So all eyes – and calculators — will be keeping close tabs on how the 2006 cohort of movies will perform.
Today gives you the lowdown on the top 10 films to look out for in the coming months and how they'll fare when the bean counters tally up the figures.
ACTION THRILLER
"Mission Impossible III" May 4
"Poseidon" May 11
"The Da Vinci Code" May 18
"Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest" July 13
This is essentially a two-horse race. "Poseidon", about a cruise liner that capsizes in a storm, is the rank outsider, since audiences have seen it all before in the original 1972 film and in director Wolfgang Petersen's earlier film, "The Perfect Storm" (2000).
The novelty of watching Johnny Depp smirk and wisecrack as an androgynous buccaneer in "Pirates of the Caribbean" may well have worn off by now.
The "Da Vinci Code" will most likely top the list. Based on Dan Brown's bestseller, it's controversial, has a ready-made fan base of millions around the world, boasts an Oscar-winning director, Ron Howard, at the helm and features archetypal everyman Tom Hanks in the lead.
Moreover, audiences are tired of "Mission Impossible III" star Tom Cruise, his outspoken belief in Scientology and his "jump-the-couch" antics.
SUPERNATURAL
"The Omen" June 6
"The Lady in the Water" July 27
The release date of "The Omen" on June 6, 2006 — in other words 6/6/6, a reference to the coming of the Antichrist as prophesied in the Bible — is pretty spooky in itself. Not forgetting its creepy trailer featuring a boy swinging by himself in the playground.
M Night Shyamalan, on the other hand, seems to have lost his Midas touch. His latest film, about a fairy tale that comes true in the real world, isn't much different from Terry Gilliam's "The Brothers Grimm" (2005) and Tim Burton's "Big Fish" (2003).
So even though "The Omen" is a remake, it has enough hooks to keep audiences on the edge of their seats.
SUPERHERO
"X-Men: The Last Stand" May 25
"Superman Returns" June 29
It has been almost 20 years since the late Christopher Reeve donned the cape and tights as the Man of Steel. Audiences will definitely want to see how up-and-coming star Brandon Routh measures up to the heroic task of upholding truth, justice and the American way.
Moreover, director Bryan Singer, who's in the odd position of facing off against the X-Men franchise which he started and made popular, is highly regarded by rabid comic book fans. So, "Superman Returns" will pass this test with flying colours.
KIDDIE
"Over the Hedge" May 4
"Cars" June 22
No contest here. Animation fans have waited 18 gruelling months, since the Oscar-winning "The Incredibles" (2004), for another Pixar offering.
"Cars", an offbeat story about a car that performs community service as penance for causing an accident, will speed away the outright winner.
THE ALTERNATIVES
Not a blockbuster fan? Today picks some smaller films braving the summer movie onslaught in Singapore cinemas.
"L'Enfant" (May)
The winner of the prestigious Golden Palm at Cannes last year, this disturbing French tale is about a desperate young couple who sell their newborn son to make ends meet.
"Thank You for Smoking" (June)
In this razor-sharp satirical comedy, a lobbyist for smoking tries to convince the public that smoking isn't bad for you.
"04:30" (June)
Royston Tan's latest work and the closing film of this year's Singapore International Film Festival is in for a commercial release. A young boy and the South Korean tenant in his home are united by loneliness and strike up an unusual friendship.
"Basic Instinct 2" (July)
Surely there will be people curious enough to see how bad the movie really is –or how good Sharon Stone looks at 48. After all, she bares all while reprising her role as ice pick-wielding author Catherine Trammell.
"The Lake House" (July)
The remake of the South Korean romantic drama "Il Mare" stars Keanu Reeves and Sandra Bullock as lovers separated by a time warp. Their only link is the love letters to each other that come through a mailbox. -TODAY/zf
